Here is a web link for the NDSU Seasonal Price Publication:
http://www.ext.nodak.edu/extpubs/agecon/market/ec763w.htm Click on this link while connected to the internet and it should load that publication into your computer. You should be able to print that publication out from your own computer.
When developing your own set of planning prices, you should take three things into account. First of all, take the long-run beef price cycle that is associated with the cattle cycle into account. Basically, that is the chart that I sent you along with the "How To Make The Cattle Cycle Work For You" CD. This gives you a set of annual planning prices for the rest of this decade based on the "big picture." If you need another copy of my "Long-Run Planning Prices", go www.beefeconomics.blogspot.com while connected to the internet and go to bottom of that long page and click on the little planning price icon. It will load my planning price table into your computer and you can print it from your computer.
Then, look at the seasonal patterns that suggest how prices tend to go within a year. While prices tend to follow the normal seasonal pattern within a given year, there are years when prices do not follow the seasonal patterns. This leads to the third step.
Third, keep a chart of this year's prices compared to the seasonal price charts in this publication. That way you will identify if this is a "normal" year or one of those that is not following seasonal patterns.
It is amazing to me how many ranchers set up their marketing programs to sell their cattle at the normal seasonal low. Then, they complain about cattle prices. Of course, what causes the normal seasonal lows is that lots and lots of rancher sell at that time and the high supply of cattle generates the seasonal lows. It seem logical, at least to me, to try to market at some time other than the seasonal lows.
Western Edge Consulting
posted by Dr. Harlan Hughes 8:30 AM
U.S. became a net importer of beef in 2004
Prior to 2004, the United States was a net exporter of beef and cattle products on a dollar-value basis, but that changed last year. In 2003, the total value of net exports was a positive $2.4 billion. In 2004, that dollar value was a negative $1.4 billion.
Beef industry exports during 2004 totaled $2.7 billion, 54 percent or $3.2 billion below 2003.
The combined value of U.S. beef, cattle and product imports in 2004 was $4.1 billion, 18 percent or $621 million larger than 2003. The increase was driven by increased beef and veal imports, which set a record at $339.7 million. For more information, follow this link.
Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center, Denver.
posted by Dr. Harlan Hughes 5:01 AM