Beef Market Advisor

Friday, October 17, 2003


The USDA-NASS monthly Cattle on Feed report (released October 17th) continued to show the number of cattle on-feed below a year ago.? As expected, both placements of cattle into U.S. feedlots and marketings during September were well above a year ago.? In contrast, Canadian feedlots continued to have placements and marketings well below a year ago.

As of October 1, USDA reported the on-feed inventory at 10.2 million head, about 2 percent less than last year and 8 percent below 2001's.? Canada reported Alberta and Saskatchewan on-feed at about 488 thousand head, 32 percent below 2002's and 47 percent less than in 2001.

For the month of September, USDA reported cattle feeder's marketed 10 percent more cattle than a year ago.? On a daily average basis, marketings were up about 5 percent as cattle feeders reacted to record high fed cattle prices.? So, U.S. slaughter cattle marketing rates (marketings as a percentage of on-feed inventory) remained aggressive in September.? USDA reported placements of cattle into feedlots were up 13 percent from 2002's.? During September, placements were above a year ago for all reported weight categories.

Canadian feedlots did not aggressively place cattle into feedlots during September.? During September, Canadian placements were down 15 percent from a year ago and the heavyweight category (over 800 pounds) had placements above 2002's.? Placements in the heavyweight category were 34 percent above 2002's, but many calves remained outside feedlots.

Quarterly data on the number of U.S. steers and heifers on-feed were reported in the October report.? As of October 1, there was essentially the same number of steers on-feed in U.S. commercial feedlots as a year ago.? The number of heifers on-feed was 4 percent below 2002's.? The number of cows and bulls on-feed was 13.5 percent below a year ago.

Source: Livestock Monitor, 17 Oct 03, Livestock Marketing Information Center, Denver, Co.

posted by Dr. Harlan Hughes 7:51 PM [edit]


The U.S. continued to be a net exporter of beef and veal products in August.? In August, U.S. exports of beef and veal (on a tonnage basis) were above a year ago but below the record monthly level set earlier this year in June.? Through August, U.S. beef exports continued to substitute Canadian product that was banned from world markets.? In August, U.S. beef and veal export tonnage (carcass weight equivalent) totaled 229.5 million pounds, 3 percent larger than 2002's.? However, on a monthly basis, U.S. beef and veal exports were down 13.7 million pounds from July and about 30 million pounds from June.

The U.S. continued to export beef and veal products, primarily middle meats, to Canada in August.? Beef sales to Canada totaled 11 million pounds, the smallest monthly export figure reported since 1989.? Of the major trading partners, only U.S. exports to Korea and Mexico showed significant year-to-year increases, up 19 and 3 percent from a year ago, respectively.? Beef exports to Japan were about even with a year ago, posting a year-to-year increase of less than one percent.? However, compared to July, U.S. exports to Japan were down about 6 percent mainly due to higher beef prices.

In August, U.S. imports of beef and veal were down again from last year, due to tight restrictions on Canadian beef.? During August, the U.S. imported 193 million pounds (carcass weight basis) of beef, down 28 percent (76 million pounds) from a year ago.? Among the major trading partners, the U.S. imported more beef from New Zealand (up 33 percent) and Mexico (25 percent), with imports from Australia about even with last year.

Due to declining imports and increased exports, on a tonnage basis the U.S. was a net exporter of beef in June, July, and August.? That trend could continue, but given the recent up swing in wholesale beef prices, U.S. beef sales will more than likely decline this fall.? Thus, the U.S. should return to being a net importer of beef during the remainder of 2003 and into next year.

Source: Livestock Monitor, 17 Oct 03, Livestock Market Information Center, Denver, Co.

posted by Dr. Harlan Hughes 7:47 PM [edit]

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